What the feck is attribution?

A common question I get asked is "What's attribution?". Here's one answer - 42. OK Ok ...

.
.
.
the story begins:

Meet Aaron, he's 24, young, full of life, uses too much hair product, and works in MacDonalds.

Aaron is going to Malaga and wants to book a car.

So he searches for "Car Hire Malaga" and sees this ad.

1

He clicks on ad 1 and browses, but doesn't book.

Some time passes. Pay day comes. Horray for the big mac.

Aaron then searches for "Hertz Car Hire" and clicks on this ad 2:

2

He books his car.

Which ad gets paid? 1, 2, both* or neither?

Write your answer down on a scrap of paper.

.

.

.

.

The answer: You're wrong.

There probably isn't a true right answer.

Answering that question is Attribution.

Now go eat some french fries. Subliminal messaging works.

* And if both, split 50:50, 90/10, or other?

P.s. I have more pointless stories using Michael (he's multi channel, geddit?). And Gonzales - always in a hurray. Comment for more or less amusing versions of this.

Season history with seasonality

There's a wonderfully over-used word in statistics, and that's 'maybe'. Only kidding - seasonality. I've heard this mis-applied, never-applied, and over-applied - mostly by me. A Wikipedia definition:

In statistics, many time series exhibit cyclic variation known as seasonality, periodic variation, or periodic fluctuations. This variation can be either regular or semi regular.

Thanks Wikipedia, not!

The short, and my version: history may often repeat itself.

Why is this important? If you are trying to work out why sales went up at 3am on a given Thursday, ask yourself whether that happens EVERY 3am on a given Wednesday. And then ask why again.  You may have better things to do with your time.


Google Analytics has a fantastic 'compare to past' feature as below. 

You can then see if your acclaimed crazy sales spike was real.

Charts like this are 'probably' showing seasonality. Determining scientifically requires effort or some deeper statistical work. 

How is that helpful? Well, if you do a lot of PR activity and see a sales spike, do you normally see a sales spike at that time? If so, perhaps spend your money more wisely. Give it to me - just like a cornetto.

If you'd like more on this, please do Comment. 






Read this? You can claim a prize. First you have to find me.

...